An unprecedented, by its standards, plan that could offer Ukraine a form of partial membership in the European bloc as early as 2027, even before the reforms needed for full membership are completed, is being worked on by the European Union. According to ten European officials and diplomats quoted by Politico, the initiative is aimed at stabilizing Kiev’s position in Europe and permanently removing the country from Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Four years after the Russian invasion and with the Ukrainian government seeking European Union membership by 2027 – a date Kiev wants to incorporate as a condition in a future peace deal with the Kremlin – this idea represents a radical change in the bloc’s enlargement process to date. The plan envisages Ukraine gaining a seat “at the EU table” before it completes the institutional, judicial and political reforms needed for full membership.

European officials and the Ukrainian government call membership urgent. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky said Friday in Kiev that Russia is likely to try to “stop our path to the EU.” “That’s why we say to set a date. Because a certain date will be signed by Ukraine, Europe, the United States and Russia,” he said, underlining the importance of institutionalizing the country’s European orientation.

“Reverse enlargement” and political message

The idea of partial integration is reminiscent of the vision of a “multi-speed Europe” that French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly presented since 2017. In Brussels, the plan has been informally dubbed “reverse enlargement”, as it envisages a country joining at the beginning – rather than the end – of the process of meeting the criteria.

According to European officials, this model would provide Kiev with political and institutional “oxygen”, allowing it to complete reforms without fostering a sense that accession is an unattainable goal. At the same time, however, strong opposition remains, most notably from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who openly opposes Ukraine’s accession.

The five steps to “light membership”

Based on conversations with European and Ukrainian officials, Politico outlines five distinct steps that could bring Kiev under the umbrella of the union.

First step: Preparing Ukraine
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The EU has begun to “fast-track” the process by providing Kiev with informal guidance on negotiating “clusters”, the legal steps for accession. Already, details have been given for three of the six. The aim is for more to be presented at an informal meeting of European Affairs Ministers in Cyprus in March, so that work can begin. “There will be no shortcuts to reforms,” European officials stress, noting that speed cannot be a substitute for institutional change.

“EU membership brings benefits only if transformation is advanced through the enlargement process – this is the real strength of EU membership,” one official said. “The European Commission has to reconcile these two things: the need to move quickly, but also to carry out reforms in Ukraine.”

For its part, Kiev says it is ready to do what is needed. “We will be technically ready by 2027,” Zelensky said Friday. “You are talking about the end of the war and simultaneous security guarantees. And the EU for us is security guarantees.”

Second step: Creating “light integration”

The second step is to create a “light light” light union.
At a recent meeting in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented alternative models, including “reverse enlargement”. The rationale is not to relax the criteria, but to send a strong political message not only to Ukraine, but also to countries such as Moldova and Albania. Despite the reservations, officials believe Kiev could accept a solution that institutionally enshrines the accession path without constituting a permanent second-class status.

“It is important to send a political message,” an EU diplomat said. “The war of aggression has been going on for four years. Ukrainians need support. The EU must provide that support, politically and psychologically.”

For his part, a Moldovan official told Politico that the country “wants to join a European Union that functions effectively beyond the 27 member states, and we welcome discussions on the internal reforms needed to make this possible.” At the same time, “full membership – with equal rights and full participation in EU decision-making – must remain the clear and final destination.”

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, for his part, told Politico last month that a creative approach to EU membership was a “good idea” and that his country would accept even temporarily not having its own commissioner.

Step three: Waiting for Orban

Membership requires unanimity, and Budapest’s stance is a crucial obstacle. European capitals are closely watching the proceedings leading up to Hungary’s April elections, hoping for political change. Orban has called Ukraine an “enemy” and has clashed repeatedly with Zelensky, exchanging tough statements.

Several EU officials have said they hope that if Orban loses the election, his rival, Peter Mayer, the conservative opposition leader, could change his stance on Ukraine, given that he promised last year to put the issue to a referendum.

But if Orban is re-elected, the process automatically goes to step four.

Step four: The Trump card

The next step is the Trump paper.
If Orban remains in power, some European leaders believe the only one who could pressure him is US President Donald Trump, with whom he has close ties. Given that Ukraine’s EU membership is included in a draft peace proposal, it is hoped that Washington will intervene politically.

With Ukraine’s EU membership by 2027 included in the draft 20-point proposal to end the war, the hope is that Trump will call on Budapest to strike a deal.

Under the peace proposal, the U.S. “undertakes to guarantee that no one will block” elements of the deal, Zelensky said in previous days. “We are discussing whether the United States of America will work politically with certain European actors to ensure that they do not obstruct the agreement.”

Fourth step: Article 7

If all other options fail, the EU could bring Article 7 of the Treaty, which provides for the suspension of member state rights, back on the table. While such a move is seen as extreme and politically risky, diplomats acknowledge it remains a “last resort” in the event of a prolonged deadlock. Article 7, which applies when a country is deemed likely to violate the core values of the union, is the most serious political sanction the EU can impose, as it suspends a member state’s rights, including those relating to the accession of new countries.

The EU, however, is not yet willing to go ahead with this move, as it believes that doing so would favour Orban ahead of the April elections. However, capitals are evaluating the use of this instrument in case Orban is re-elected and continues to obstruct EU decision-making. Such a move is “entirely possible,” a third diplomat said.