The Greek national basketball team failed against Bosnia in the 4th round of EuroBasket 2025, losing 80-77, which complicates their path to finishing first in the group—a position that would give them a more favorable matchup in the Round of 16.

So, what are the scenarios in which Greece can finish first?

Victory Against Spain:
If Greece wins its final match against Spain, it will finish first in the group regardless of other results—the top spot is in its hands.

In Case of a Loss to Spain:
If Greece loses to Spain, the following scenarios apply, assuming Italy beats Cyprus in the final round:

1. Italy wins tonight vs. Spain, Bosnia wins its last game:
   There will be a three-way tie at 3-2 between Spain, Bosnia, and Greece, in which Greece would rank behind Spain and Bosnia, finishing 4th.
   • Italy 4-1
   • Spain 3-2
   • Bosnia 3-2
   • Greece 3-2
2. Italy wins tonight vs. Spain, Georgia wins its last game vs. Bosnia:
   Another three-way tie occurs, this time between Spain, Georgia, and Greece.
   Because Greece won by a large margin against these teams, it would need to lose to Spain by 29 points to drop to 3rd place. (Point differences are shown for games between Greece, Spain, and Georgia.)
   • Italy 4-1
   • Greece 3-2 (+41)
   • Spain 3-2 (-13)
   • Georgia 3-2 (-27)
3. Spain wins tonight vs. Italy, Georgia wins its last game:
   In a three-way tie with Italy and Georgia, Greece would finish 2nd, having beaten both Italy and Georgia.
   • Spain 4-1
   • Greece 3-2
   • Italy 3-2
   • Georgia 3-2
4. Spain wins tonight vs. Italy, Bosnia wins its last game:
   In a three-way tie with Italy and Bosnia, Greece would finish 3rd, as the tiebreaker is the point difference in games between Greece, Italy, and Bosnia.
   • Spain 4-1
   • Italy 3-2 (+8)
   • Greece 3-2 (+6)
   • Bosnia 3-2 (-14)