The immediate impact of the policy of imposing horizontal tariffs on European products that our country could have seems to be small since our exports to the US in 2024, despite the fact that they increased by almost 20% from last year to reach 2.4 billion euros, are expected to have a direct impact on the European economy. euros, they will not exceed 5% of total Greek exports, which last year was just under 50 billion euros, while as a size corresponds to 1% of GDP.

However, the big question mark is how the new US policy will affect the European economies, where we currently send more than 55% of our exports and from which we attract most tourists to the country (NB: travel receipts from EU countries in the 11 months of January – November 2024 reached 11.71 billion euros out of a total of 21.26 billion euros). In other words, it is the indirect consequences that the country may face in an international trade and investment environment that seems to be undergoing several changes that are of greater concern, as also highlighted last week by the governor of the BoE, Giannis Stournaras. “We have estimated that Greece will show growth of 2.5% this year, a performance that is directly related to a Eurozone growth rate of 1.1%. So if the pace in the Eurozone slows down, as I mentioned before, due to the imposition of tariffs, obviously there will be an impact on Greek GDP, but not a significant one,” he said in an interview.

“The danger is real. Efforts are being made through lobbying, but eventually, we may see horizontal tariffs imposed by the US that will affect our export activity in the US market. In his previous term, for example, olives and olive oil were exempted from tariffs, but I fear that now we are heading towards a horizontal imposition,” President of the Association of Exporters, Alkiviadis Kalabokis, tells “THEMA”. “Indeed, the fact that we are clearly in surplus in terms of bilateral trade, in itself probably raises a red flag to the US based on President Trump’s several aggressive statements about unequal trade relations with Europe,”
he adds.

Based on the latest official annual data for the year 2023, Greece had a trade surplus of €614 million with the US, with our exports reaching €2.1 billion and our imports €1.5 billion. In 2024, based on the latest available data from ELSTAT between January and November 2024, and based on a reduction for December, our exports, as estimated by Eurobank’s economic analysts, increased to about €2.4 billion, and our imports to about €2.2 billion. So the surplus also fell to about 200 million euros.

Based on the latest available annual data, the main product categories we export to the US are: food (€536.6m in 2023), dominated by antipasti, fruits and nuts, olive oi,l and cheese. Minerals – fuels – lubricants (€416.6 million), led by lubricants, industrial goods (€396.1 million), machinery (€293.3 million ) and chemicals (€112.8 million).

For Greek agri-food products in particular, the blow will be uneven and greater, given that several small and medium-sized enterprises have invested heavily over the last decade to penetrate the US market, with feta cheese, yogurt products, antipasti, olive oil, peaches and so on leading the way, even finding alternatives in the export block to Russia.

On the other hand, the main products we import from the US are oil and LNG, with the minerals – fuels – lubricants category showing imports of 574.9 million euros in 2023. This is followed by machinery (314.5 million), chemicals and related products (152.6 million), non-food raw materials other than fuels (116 million), and industrial goods (103 million).

“The extent to which Greece’s merchandise exports to the US will ultimately be affected will depend on the level of the possible rise in tariffs and the degree of sensitivity of Greek merchandise exports to the US to the rise in tariffs,” Eurobank analysts said in their study.

“Greek-American relations are at their best point ever. And I don’t think this can be reversed,” Nikos Bakatselos, president of the Hellenic American Chamber of Commerce, tells THEMA. “To be honest, I am more concerned about the economic instability and uncertainty that exists today in major markets in Europe, such as Germany and France, and the possible complications there from a trade confrontation with the US, rather than the US itself with the looming policy change,” he adds.

He agrees with the assessment Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made at the Chamber’s annual event last week that “the Trump factor may be the opportunity to change Europe, now moving towards economic integration and with greater flexibility on a range of issues, including energy.”

American investment

The US protectionist policy does not appear to pose a risk to the level of direct US investment in Greece at the moment, given that interest remains high and is mainly focused on sectors related to local or regional infrastructure, so it does not enter the balance with Trump’s claims for more factories in the US. The latter, however, may trigger decisions on the part of companies with interests in the US to invest in more infrastructure – and perhaps production – there. It is recalled that Greek companies with factories in the US already include TITAN Group, FAGE, while the Greek Cables Group of VIOKHALCO is building its first factory in the US.

Indicative examples of investments by US companies in Greece include Pfizer, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Digital Realty, Meta (ex-Facebook), Chubb, and 547 Energy, while Google has announced a significant investment. In general, the investments made in the high-tech sector stand out, as in 2023 third of the investments in Greek start-ups were in US funds. In particular, 11 new acquisitions of domestic startups were made, some of which exceeded €100 million.